The model goodness of fit is usually assessed through inspection of the residuals in the way that in a good fit, the plot of residuals versus the order of observations should not depict any trend and the residuals should randomly be scattered around the zero line. Boxcox is another popular transformation recommended to improve ARIMA fitting ( 24). If necessary, ARIMA use differencing (d) to change time series data into stationary ones ( 17). Therefore, this study was conducted to forecast daily new cases that infected with COVID-19 for next days in Iran, with identifying the most accurate model for forecasting it.Īuto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA)ĪRIMA (p, d, q) is simultaneous fit of other two models including Auto-Regressive (p), Moving Average (q) and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model ( 22, 23). However with the most precise forecasting model since the spread of coronavirus depends on several factors, including environmental factors and personal behavior, quarantine, therefore modeling can not predict the precise number of cases, but they help to make better decisions by health policy makers. This comparison is also continued in this study to determine the most accurate model for forecasting the spreading trend of Coronavirus. However, none of ARIMA and ANN has been definitively proven to be more precise than the other for different medical fields and therefore studies continue to compare them ( 17). There are many studies confirmed the superior performance of machine learnig algorithms in comparison to more customary models ( 21). ANN is a member of machine learning algorithms. Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) are the two most popular class of models for trend modeling and predicting time-series data ( 17) Although ARIMA has been in use for forecasting infectious disease since past years ( 18), ANN has been recently known as powerful nonlinear regression techniques( 19) and due to its ability for time series forecasting, it has been widely applied ( 20). ![]() Modeling to predict the number of new cases in the next days is one way that reveals the trend of disease. Therefore, being aware of trend of disease helps to make decisions about preventive interventions. Because the disease is highly contagious, the government and the health system must be prepared to prevent and counteract it. The total number of confirmed patients and death in Iran was 446, respectively on Mar 31,2020 ( 16).Īlthough, the government has implemented preventive strategies at the beginning of the outbreak, the number of new cases increased and has created a serious concern for people and health policy makers. Then the disease spread very fast throughout the country ( 15). Iran was seen as the first case of COVID-19 in Qom on Feb 19, 2020. ![]() Therefore, the total number of confirmed cases and deaths from this virus 80008 people in the world by Mar 31, 2020, and infected more than 190 countries ( 14). This disease has an incubation period of over 14 d, its mortality rate is between 2%–3% ( 12) and is transmitted through respiratory droplets and contact with contaminated surface ( 9).ĬOVID-19 spread very fast in China ( 3, 13), and the world ( 4). The origin of this virus is not yet known, but it’s more likely to be a bat ( 10, 11). The novel coronavirus is the third type of this family that created a huge pandemic and introduced as COVID-19 by WHO. They have created two outbreaks in 20, respectively ( 9). Two popular types of coronaviruses are called SARS-CoV-1 and MERS-CoV. The coronavirus, a large family of viruses, was the main cause of this outbreak ( 6– 8). Several cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome with unknown etiology were reported in Dec 2019 in Wuhan City, China ( 1– 5).
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